Whatever your view on the performance of the current UK Government, when it comes to decarbonisation of the energy supply, it has made some pretty bold commitments – on paper, at least.

To meet its goals, its manifesto states it will double the UK's onshore wind capacity, triple its solar power generation, and quadruple its offshore wind energy production by 2030. It also undertakes to invest in carbon capture, hydrogen and marine energy, and long-term energy storage.

Impressive stuff – and, certainly, to be applauded. But ambitious plans come with a need for cast-iron constancy, rock-solid resources, and a steely resolve to manage unexpected consequences – and the Government is already showing signs of falling at every fence.

Here’s why we believe the journey to net zero power could prove a bumpy one for the current administration.

 

Infrastructure and grid upgrades: big numbers, big issues

The Government aims to fully decarbonise the UK power system by 2030, but the engineering work involved in this is immense – and the metrics look unrealistic.

For instance, the plans involve upgrading and expanding the UK’s high-voltage grid by twice as much in the next five years as we’ve seen in the past ten.

The plans will also require four times as much battery capacity connected to the grid, and contracting for as much offshore wind power in the next one to two years as we've seen in the past six.

If it’s starting to sound like scale is a problem here, it’s a problem in other ways, too. Consider, for example, that achieving the carbon capture and storage targets will entail using technology that has not yet been delivered at any kind of scale at all.

And the infrastructure and upgrade challenge doesn’t start and stop with the heavy engineering piece. The whole programme is posited on the ability of the power network to become 400% more flexible in handling energy demand, and enabling the retail market to respond to price signals – all of which depends on using smart meters that actually work properly (which many still don’t.)

Plus, there’s a shortage of sub-station transformers in international markets, and of the ships needed for offshore turbine installation, so there’s a real danger that many of the Government’s plans will simply fall victim to supply chain woes.

 

Skills shortfall – by the Government’s own admission

On the skills gap, where to begin?

There is a generalised problem across the UK with regard to producing a workforce suitably skilled in STEM subjects and their practical application, and this is adversely affecting the country’s ability to deliver projects of all kinds – construction, engineering, IT, and many others.

And by the magic date of 2030, this skills gap is expected to be costing the country £120 billion, which takes the shine off the power programme’s ROI somewhat.

But additionally, an industry report published by the National Energy System Operator (NESO) - itself a Government agency – points to serious skills shortages in the power engineering disciplines that are absolutely core to the Government’s proposition.

Ultimately, this shortfall even filters down to the level of the more energy-efficient technologies that, as part of the decarbonisation drive, the Government is mandating in homes and businesses – heat pumps, for example.

The reality is that a decarbonised power supply connected to a heat pump that is not truly energy-efficient because it’s been installed by someone without the necessary skill set is nothing less than a net zero nonsense!

 

Backpedalling on gas

But perhaps the most telling failing in the Government’s vision for power decarbonisation to date has been the spectacular bout of backpedalling we’ve seen recently over the installation of gas boilers.

Previously, the Government’s aim was to phase out the sale of new gas boilers completely by 2035, but it recently announced that the ban would apply to new builds only, with existing properties still allowed to purchase and install gas boilers beyond that point.

This is more than just an embarrassment or a climbdown. It’s essentially an admission that there will be insufficient availability of that wonderful new decarbonised electricity to replace gas use at least five years beyond the date by which decarbonised power is supposed to be fully in place!

 

Has Miliband seen the future?

In short, the decarbonisation intentions of the current Government are looking shaky in practice, and it’s rather revealing that of the issues that Ed Miliband called the “four horsemen of apocalypse” - planning, grid, skills, and supply chain – it seems clear, as we’ve explored above, that three of them are already cause for worry.

Could planning be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and consigns Labour to yet more energy policy U-turns?

As a business that not only installs energy-efficient, low-carbon technologies, but uses them itself, we’ll be watching closely for any signs that the Government’s actions at the supply level are failing to keep step with our vision for a more sustainable built environment.